Brexit Survival


Clock is counting down to the Brexit extension of 31 January 2020 granted by the EU

Surviving A Short Term Emergency With Brexit

● No matter whether you voted leave or remain;
● No matter whether you want “Leave Means Leave;
● No matter whether you want a second referendum; or
● Leave now without a deal

You Need To Prepare!

 

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comWhat Is Brexit

The United Kingdom split almost 50:50 in the 2016 referendum on whether the UK should leave the European Union or stay. There was a small majority in favour of leaving. There has also been a lot of acrimonious debate since. That means that whatever happens with Brexit, almost half the country is going to be disappointed with what happens, whatever it is. There is a brexit timeline available to check if you want.

What Does Brexit Mean

BRitish EXIT: the term Brexit has been coined to stand for BRitish EXIt from the European Union, the community it has been a part of for 47 years.

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comWhile the government is putting billions of pounds into preparing for Brexit, it is possible that not everything will be covered, especially if the exit is a no-deal scenario. There will be people upset with the situation, whatever happens on 31st October 2019, the Prime Minister’s proposed EU departure date, When people are upset with politics, difficulties and commotion can happen and that can lead to shortages of food, medications and fuel, political disturbances and power cuts even if only in small areas. If you are in one of those areas, life may become uncomfortable for a while. Economically, financial exchange rates can also change, affecting the prices of imported goods, especially oil.

This site is NOT about the Brexit debate. It is not taking sides one way or the other. It provides good plain commonsense on making preparations for keeping yourself and your family fed, warm and sheltered for a short period after any final Brexit decision (one way or the other). Whether the UK leaves or stays in the EU, there may be some upheavals in some areas. If it leaves, there may be shortages of items that are imported or that need to be moved around the country.

Emergencies

Emergencies can happen anywhere, anytime – a power station going down, a flood, a storm, blizzard, wildfire. Any or all of these might make life hard for a while.

Even if you live in the calmest, safest part of the world, a tree can fall, lightning can strike, your electrical power can go down, such as the huge power outages in England and Wales on 9 August 2019, when two power suppliers lost power simultaneously, a strike or a problem elsewhere can affect supplies to your local shops. It doesn’t have to be Brexit related. Life is a risk. In August 2019 a dam threatened to burst in the Midlands area of the UK and many residents had to be evacuated from their homes at very short notice.
Even without Brexit, it’s important to plan to make yourself and your family self-reliant in the event of a major disaster. In a time of crisis, you don’t want to have to go cold, go hungry, scramble to stay alive, have to make do without your medications, or to have to depend on others to help you out.

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comDisaster Announced

When disasters occur, normal routine is totally thrown out even if only in a small area. If that area is where you live, then there may be widespread shortages. Not just food but also power, water and medication.

Before a disaster strikes, such as a storm or hurricane, there may be news flashes to let people know it’s coming. Then you’ll see pictures of empty shelves in the shops because people who didn’t plan ahead rush out in an effort to take care of themselves and their loved ones. If imports and transport of goods are limited, then what is sent to the shops my be prioritised, for instance food may be seen as more important than cleaning items.

That mad rush will only result in a few days’ worth of supplies and these may not stay fresh. And long term power outages ( like after major hurricanes), or storm damage can make it difficult for people and supplies to get out or in to affected areas.

Short Term Emergency

A short-term emergency disrupts normal life temporarily. It could be a flash flood, a storm, a forest fire, or an uncertain political situation. Any of these could lead to food shortages, maybe a need for shelter and a lack of other necessities, such as clean water, warmth and electricity.

Any of these could happen at any time and if you want to survive as comfortably as possible, you need to know exactly what to do if disaster hits and where to go if your home isn’t safe or habitable. It’s always useful to be ready for whatever happens.

You can prepare for a bad few days or weeks by making sure you have emergency food and household supplies, such as cleaning items, available in your home in case supply lines are disrupted. You could also have emergency bags ready and waiting with at least three days’ worth of food, water, clothing and the means to provide or make a temporary shelter, in case you need to leave temporarily.

Not For Preppers

This is NOT a prepper’s site; it is NOT helping you prepare for the complete end of civilisation as we know it. There is a workbook available, related to this site, that will help you prepare for a short disruption where things will eventually get back to normal. It contains lists of items you may wish to stock up on plus space for you to add your own items to obtain. It also contains some easy emergency recipes and about 20 pages for you to add in your own easy cook / no cook recipes. The journal also prompts you to consider your options for cooking, warmth and fuel. Preparing ahead of time can help you survive more comfortably and means you should not need to go outside at times when things may be disturbed. Most emergencies arrive quickly but they also don’t happen that often, so you get time to prepare for something happening (even if you won’t always know what).. Let’s get started.

TinsTuesday

Try buying a few extra tins of stuff you would normally buy and stash them away in a spare cupboard somewhere. #TinsTuesday

#WashupWednesday

Make Wednesday a day for adding washing and cleaning items like soap, shapoo and toothpaste to your emergency stash. #WashupWednesday

When You Can’t Stock Pile For Brexit

I have seen a lot of posts recently on whether people are stocking up for Brexit. I was surprised (and pleased) to see that in one particular group over 2/3rds of respondents were stocking up to some extent.
www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comBut I was also sad to see that a number of people said that they did not even know how they would put food on the table THIS week, never mind stocking up for the future. 🙁

Some people also said they would love to stockpile for Brexit but they did not know how to: they felt that any extra tins would get used up before Brexit came along. So I thought it would be useful to start a list of ideas for how to create and keep a small stockpile for future needs.

Squirrel It Away

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comSquirrels hide nuts in Autumn, so they will have something to eat when they wake up (they do not hibernate fully, but wake and go back to sleep again). Get yourself a small box (free from the greengrocer) and put your tins or other non-perishable food in there and hide it away, under your bed, in the wardrobe, under a cupboard, wherever you won’t go straight to when making your ordinary meals. Forget about it, unless there is an emergency. Once Brexit is over, you can add the stuff to your normal store or keep it in case of another emergency in the future. Remember to check dates every so often!

Skim It Off The Top

At the start of the month or the week, or when you get some money and you buy some stuff, remove part of what you have bought (one tin, one jar, one packet) and add it to the box below the bed or in the wardrobe and forget about it until there is an emergency. www.brexitsurvivaljournal.com

Keep The Pennies

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comThis also applies to any small change you get from the shop. DO NOT throw small change away, store it in a jar. It mounts up. Even keep your small change in a separate pocket and just save what is left over at the end of the week, if you can’t save it each day.

In terms of small change, try sofa diving, or look on the ground near shop doors, you may find pennies or silver that other people have discarded!

UnLawful – Parliament Suspension

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comUnlawful

The UK’s Supreme Court has ruled that the Prime Minister, Boris Johnston’s suspension of Parliament in September for 5 weeks until October 19th 2019 was unlawful.

What Does This Mean

As the suspension was illegal. it means that Parliament is NOT suspended.

What Happens Now

It seems that several things could happen:

  1. The speaker of the House of Commons and the Speaker of the House of Lords can get together to recall Parliament, as it was not suspended;
  2. The Prime Minister may have an option to suspend Parliament again, as an executive function, that is, not asking the Queen to sign the order;
  3. The previous session may be reinstated or there may need to be a Queen’s Speech, signalling a new Parliamentary session, which means that any legislation that was going through Parliament when it was prorogued (suspended) will be lost.

It’s all “Wait and See”.

Update

The speaker of the House of Commons has called on Parliament to reconvene at 11.30am on Wednesday 25th of September 2019. You can read the latest news on this.

Updated 27 September 2019

Parliament reconvened and it seems that the previous session has continued, as if it had not been suspended. There have been some noisy scenes in the house, with some members attempting to shout others down and some very bad tempered repartee. It is currently a “wait and see” game, with each side trying to ensure that is is not outfoxed.

 

Yellowhammer Black Swan and Kingfisher

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comNOT Birdwatching

No, this is not a bird watching post but an article on 3 codenames for secret government reports on Brexit.

YellowHammer

What is Yellowhammer? A Yellowhammer is a small bird with a song that is said to sound like “A little bit of bread and no cheese” and the term is now being used as a code name by government for work relating to a no-deal scenario for Brexit. It was in August 2019 that The Sunday Times reported on a document, code named Yellowhammer, that provided a realistic assessment of severe problems if the UK left the EU without a deal, including:

  • a three-month “meltdown” at channel ports with major hold-ups;
  • HGV delays at Dover between one-and-a-half and two-and-a-half days;
  • a hard Irish border;
  • shortages of some foods and medicine import delays;
  • possible public disorder increase with protests and counter-protests; and,
  • a rise in community tensions.

Scaremongering

The Government has dismissed the document as “scaremongering”, and a “worst-case scenario”, with extra funding being made available to mitigate any problems.

Irresponsible Punishment

The Opposition Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said the document showed a no-deal Brexit would punish those who could least afford it and must be stopped, while Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer said it was completely irresponsible for Government to have tried to ignore the warnings. The document was published because Parliament required this. Large parts of the document were still hidden.
 

Black Swan Kingfisher

There are rumours that two other secret documents, Black Swan and Kingfisher, exist, with Kingfisher looking at supporting British businesses suffering under a no-deal Brexit, and Black Swan, preparing for disaster!

Unlawful – Scottish Appeal Court Ruling

11 September 2019

The Scottish Appeal Court has ruled that the Prime Minister, Boris Johnston’s decision to prorogue (suspend) Parliament for 5 weeks until 14 October 2019 was unlawful.

This is unlikely to have any effect, however, as the UK’s Supreme Court will be holding a hearing on this next week.

It appears, from a brief reading, that the decision of “not lawful” was based on the reason for proroguing Parliament. The reason provided by the government for suspending Parliament was that they needed time to prepare the Queen’s Speech. The Queen’s Speech is a programme of work that the Government intends to carry out in the incoming year. The apparent reason argued by the MPs complaining about suspension  was that government wished to avoid discussion and dissension in the weeks ahead of the Brexit date of 31 October 2019 and that suspension prevented Parliament from carrying out its legal duty to provide a check on government.

WATCH THIS SPACE!

General Election In The UK

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comThe UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnston, has said that he will call a General Election in the UK, if Parliament does not support him in his attempts to bring about Brexit by 31 October 2019.

During a General Election, Parliament is suspended, although the government remains in power.

Calling an election is a calculated risk and the Prime Minister must feel that his government has a good chance of winning the election if one is called.

Points To Consider

An election takes about 6 weeks to prepare and hold and to count votes and bring together a government (if no party wins a majority). This could take place over the 31st October 2019, which would mean the UK leaving the EU by default with no deal, which the House of Commons has repeatedly said they do not want. The Prime Minister has said that he would hold the election early enough that a new government would be in place before 31st October.

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comThe Prime Minister has said that any members of the ruling party (Tories / Conservatives) voting against him in the House of Commons vote will not be allowed to stand as MPs if an election is called.

Some politicians have called for the Brexit question to be completed first BEFORE any General Election is called.

A General Election has to be held every five years in the UK but an early election can be called if two thirds of MPs agree. Normally, the opposition parties would agree to holding an election, as they would want to have the chance of getting into power and by voting against an election, might be considered to be supporting the party in power.

If an election is held before the Brexit question is settled, then the vote is likely to be on Brexit issues, rather than on normal election issues, such as finance, trade, housing and social issues.

The leader of the Brexit Party has said that he will not field candidates in constituencies where Tories have a good chance of winning if the Conservative (Tory) Party has a no-deal Brexit option in their election manifesto.

The House of Commons has a majority against leaving the EU without a deal, however, this is split over a number of parties and the parties cannot agree on a single strategy to combat any no-deal Brexit.

Parliament To Be Prorogued

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comParliament is to be prorogued (suspended) from sometime between 9 and 12 September 2019 until 14 October 2019. This was announced by the current government, after the Queen gave permission. (This is actually a technicality, as the Queen is a constitutional monarch. Parliament is the ruling body, the Queen acts on the advice of her Ministers, whether she likes it or not.)

There is likely to be Brexit chaos over the next few months. Prepare for this by stocking up on essentials. Use the Brexit Survival Journal to check what you need and make notes.

Kicked Out

UK May Not Have A Choice About Staying in Europe

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comThe UK parliament is currently (24th August 2019) in recess (on its summer holiday). It next sits 3rd September 2019, when a great deal of political activity will start.

Political Machinations

The whole of the UK as well as its MPs is divided about what to do about Brexit. The Brexit deadline is 31st October 2019. The main options being floated are:

  1. Leave without a deal on 31st October 2019 (no-deal)
  2. Negotiate a new deal and leave on 31st October 2019
  3. Parliament to “take charge” and pass legislation preventing a no-deal Brexit
  4. Government of National Unity to be formed to agree a way forward
  5. General Election

Backstop

There are other options, some of which are variations on those listed above. One of the main issues about agreeing a deal for Brexit is what is called the “backstop”. This concerns Northern Ireland (politically part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland. This is the only land border that the UK has with the European Union. The EU offer includes a backstop option that will prevent a hard border (customs stops and checks) if the transition period for finally agreeing the deal is exceeded or no deal can be finally agreed.

Those who want Brexit do not want the backstop option to be included, as it will require the UK remaining in a customs union with the EU for some time, possibly indefinitely, some fear.

There are others who are concerned about a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, as the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland had agreed there would be free movement between North and South.

UK’s Choice Or Not

Up until now, it has been thought that it was solely the UK’s choice as to whether or not to leave the EU, however, the Brexit deadline, 31st October 2019, is fast approaching. For those who wish to either stay in the EU or negotiate a softer divorce, that date may need to be postponed to allow for another referendum or more negotiations.

Would The EU Agree

Shifting the 31st October date again would require EU agreement. Some in the EU are getting tired of the arguments and may not agree to any further extension. Indeed some may be very glad to get rid of the UK!

Hard Brexit 31st October 2019

With those opposed to leaving the EU, or to leaving without an agreement, time is now very short for any action and if the EU refuses to grant an extension, even if they can agree sufficiently to request one, it is currently looking more and more likely that the UK will leave the EU on 31st October 2019 without any agreement. If so, then the time to start preparing for shortages is NOW!

Power Cuts

Blackouts in England And Wales

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comOn 9 August 2019, nearly a million people were affected by a major power cut across large areas of England and Wales, including the Midlands, the South East, South West and North East of England, and Wales. This affected businesses, homes and transport networks, with hundreds stranded at railway stations or on trains: and traffic lights stopping working. The electricity suppliers, the National Grid, said two separate power generators had failed but supplies had now been restored. (BBC News)

According to the National Grid’s director of operations, Duncan Burt, this was an “incredibly rare event” and the company would “learn lessons”, but the electricity regulator Ofgen, has demanded an “urgent detailed report” on the problem and could take action against the company, including a fine. The government also said it would investigate what went wrong. (More BBC News)

Incredibly Rare Events Can Happen

You may hear the term “rare, statistically speaking”, which means something is not very likely to happen but IT’S NOT IMPOSSIBLE for it to happen. It might be rare, but it is possible. And if it is possible, then sod’s law says it will happen at the very worst time possible. If it happens at the worst time, then the consequences, the results, will be the worst possible.

Problems With Power Cuts

The most obvious ones are:

  • The lights go out, no TV, no computer, no radio;
  • The stove cooking your dinner goes off;
  • The heat goes off -it’s cold in winter;
  • Traffic lights may go out, causing traffic chaos;
  • Electric trains like the underground stop running with trains stuck in tunnels or between stations;
  • Lifts stop operating, possible stuck between floors;
  • Petrol pumps stop working – no fuel;
  • ATMs stop working – no money;
  • Freezers defrost.

Planning Ahead

  • Batteries;
  • Battery radio, keep laptop charged up while electricity on
  • Rechargeable Torches kept on charge all the time. or candles and matches (be careful with these);
  • gas stove, camping stove, gas or charcoal barbecue or coal fire for cooking;
  • gas or coal fire for heating;
  • keep a stash of cash for emergencies
  • keep freezers closed, keep them topped up or use boxes and newspapers for insulation and lower heat gain.

Plan For Your Own Comfort And Safety

Make your own plans for your and your family’s comfort, safety and survival.

Toddler Tuesday

#ToddlerTuesday

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comAny parent of small children knows they don’t do “boredom”. If they aren’t kept busy, they will find something to amuse themselves and that can often be what you do not want them to do. They are also very often “picky” with their food and need foods that they will eat.

Surviving Brexit With Babies, Toddlers And Small Children

Hopefully, Brexit will pass off without anyone noticing any difference and you can just play with and feed your children as usual.

If it doesn’t, then preparing ahead of time will save your sanity and make life easier for everyone.

Food

Stock up on any special items you normally feed your child with, including formula (baby milk), rusks, and any foods you know your child likes AND that can be stored with a good long “use by” date. These might include tinned baked beans or spaghetti for older children or tinned soup. Remember to include treats appropriate to your child’s age, such as chocolate buttons and Smarties. They are not only useful as rewards or bribes but if there are problems preparing food, they can stop a child from becoming too hungry. You can also store sliced bread in the freezer, provided it is well wrapped against freezer burn. Frozen sliced bread can be toasted direct from frozen for a quick snack of toast.

Leaving Home

Let’s hope no one has to leave home but if you do, a prepared “go” bag, including a wash bag, pyjamas, clean underwear and a change of clothes for each child is useful. Remember nappies and wet wipes for any child using them. Other useful items for each bag include a bottle of water and a snack, such as a chocolate bar (appropriate to age).

Amusements

Just in case there are power cuts or you have to leave home, then including a game or book or toys in the go bag for each child can save a lot of trouble. Colouring books and crayons or coloured pencils are useful, low tech, easy-carry and cheap items to include. Books are heavier but may be useful for older children. A favourite toy may be vital to remember. Low tech toys are useful if there are power cuts even if you remain at home. You can always remove a few current toys to pack away because by the time October 31st comes around, those toys will seem new again.

Cold Weather

At October 31st, the weather in the UK is usually turning colder, even if there are a few days of Indian Summer. Keep some warm clothes on hand in case there are power cuts or lack of warmth or you have to move.

Brexit Survival Journal

Get checklists that will help you survive Brexit and provide space for you to add your own items with the Brexit Survival Journal.

Warmth Wednesday

Hallowe’en Brexit

www.brexitsurvivaljournal.comOctober 31st, Hallowe’en, is the planned date for the UK’s exit from Europe (Brexit). This date is half way through the Autumn season, moving quickly towards Winter. The long range forecast for the end of October, early November, shows a daytime high temperature of 10 – 12 degrees Celsius and a night time low of 4 – 6 degrees Celsius. (daytime high of 53 degrees Fahrenheit to night time low of 42 degrees Fahrenheit.)

Autumn Heat

For most people, this will mean putting at least some heat on, whether that is oil, coal, gas, or electric. Even if there is an Indian summer in the Autumn, this is usually over by the end of October and there can be snow at times in November.
Have you thought about what you could do to lessen the effects of possible shortages of fuel or heat? The Brexit Survival Journal prompts you to think about these questions and provides some ideas on how you can prepare, at the least cost, to ensure you do not go cold or without warm food.

Yellowhammer

The Yellowhammer report predicts that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the planned removal of all tariffs from oil (and other goods) entering the UK, will make the UK’s fuel industry unprofitable, which could mean the closure of two oil refineries. Whether this could lead to fuel and heating oil restrictions is not known, however, lorries moving through ports are thought likely to experience up to 2 days of delays, which will reduce the level of all road transported goads entering the UK.

Oil is usually transported by boat to the UK and by road tanker after refining. Coal is also usually imported by boat and distributed throughout the UK by lorry.
www.brexitsurvivaljournal.com

The Yellowhammer report, or at least the details released so far, does not predict shortages of oil or coal in the event of a no-deal Brexit, although it does predict the closure of two oil refineries and the loss of 2,000 direct jobs. This could lead to protests and strike action which could affect oil supplies.

There does not appear to be any mention of electricity power cuts or gas supply disruption.

Quite apart from any possible difficulties in importing oil to the UK, it is paid for in US dollars. It is predicted that if the UK leaves the EU on a no-deal Brexit, the exchange value of the pound sterling against the US dollar will drop considerably. This will lead to an increase in the cost of heating oil and vehicle fuel.

Build Up Stocks Where Possible

While shortages of heating fuels and vehicle fuel does not appear to be predicted as a high possibility, it is possible that there could be some disruption to supplies. There could also be sharp price increases due to a possible drop in the value of the pound sterling against the US dollar, so where it is possible to build up fuel stocks ahead of time, it may be prudent to do so.